Vancouver, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

645
FXUS66 KPQR 191050
AFDPQR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Portland OR
350 AM PDT Sat Jul 19 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Expect fairly robust onshore flow to continue
through the weekend into early next week keeping temperatures
near to slightly below normal - low 60s along the coast with mid
70s to low 80s inland valleys. An upper low passing overhead
Sunday night into Monday brings a slight chance (10-24%) of
light rain to the coast and Cascades as well, otherwise mostly
dry. Forecast confidence is still only modest at best mid to
late week although a return to warmer temperatures by
Wednesday/Thursday is likely.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Now through Monday night...The area currently sits
on the southwestern periphery of a upper-level trough feature
over the pacific northwest with broad northwesterly flow
currently in place. This has aided in stronger push of marine
air early this morning compared to past days as evident by low
stratus beginning to slosh into portions of the
Portland/Vancouver metro - a trend which`ll continue into the
sunrise hours. With additional morning cloud cover, stronger
westerly flow, and 850mb temperatures decreasing to 9-11c by
Sunday night into Monday morning, high temperatures likely
decline to below normal values by the latter half of the
weekend. Coastal mist and fog are also most likely Sunday
morning reaching into west-facing Coast Range valleys. West to
northwest winds will also strengthen modestly, with gusts as
high as 30-35 mph through the Columbia Gorge each afternoon.

Come Monday, there good deterministic and ensemble consensus
that a vigorous upper shortwave will dive southward over the
Haida Gwaii and Vancouver Island, resulting in elongated upper
troughing or even a cutoff low centered developing over the
Pacific NW. While this wave may support light rain/mist reaching
into the region to start the workweek, chances remain fairly
low, only 15-24% along the coast and in the Coast Range, and
slightly lower in the Cascades and foothills. That said, there
still remains a split between ECMWF/EPS and GFS/GEFS based
guidance on the exact longitudinal placement of the shortwave as
it dives southward. ECMWF solutions are generally cooler and
"wetter" (a few hundreds to a tenth of an inch) compared to the
latter set guidance as it places the shortwave just a touch
further west. Given the overall set-up, the forecast was nudge
slightly towards the ECMWF/EPS mean solution as it has been the
most consistent over the last several days. -Schuldt

.LONG TERM...Tuesday through Friday night...On Tuesday the
model consensus shows the axis of the trough shifting to the ESE
as it generally elongates into northern California. This`ll
likely be enough to begin raising upper-level heights overhead thus
allowing high temperatures to rebound back into the mid 80s
across the Willamette Valley and other inland valleys. Then
numerical guidance is still split towards the middle to end of
the week trying to resolve the upper-level pattern as the
evolution of the trough and/or cutoff low remains somewhat low
confidence. Many ensemble members are continuing to favor
another cutoff upper low developing near Cape Mendocino while
the mean flow to the north returns to a more zonal pattern. In
this scenario, heights rising aloft and moderating mid-level
temperatures would favor a continued warming trend at the
surface, while southerly to southeasterly flow about the eastern
flank of the upper low could generate convection/T-storms over
the Cascades - a pattern to watch closely. Most ensemble and
deterministic guidance hint at another upper-level trough
feature developing over the far eastern Pacific Friday/Saturday
which would lead to at least a decrease in temperatures.
-Schuldt/Picard

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR/IFR stratus has filled in along the coast while
inland terminals remain VFR. A stronger marine push may result in
sct-bkn low stratus reaching up the Columbia River to Portland-
area terminals (KPDX, KHIO, KVUO, KTTD, KUAO) with probabilities
for MVFR CIGs are 30-50% from 10-17z. At the coast, expect low
marine stratus with high- end IFR to low- end MVFR cigs to
persist at KAST through 20-22z Sunday. KONP has dropped to IFR
CIGs and will likely remain MVFR or IFR through around 18z
Sunday.

Diurnal west to northwest wind 5-10 kt, relaxing inland to
around 5 kt overnight.


.AVIATION...Satellite imagery as of early Saturday morning depicts
marine stratus along the coast and clear skies across the
Willamette Valley. High confidence for IFR/low-end MVFR stratus
continuing at coastal terminals through the morning. There is also
a 30-50% chance that strong onshore flow pushes MVFR stratus into
the northern Willamette Valley between 12-17z Sat. Stratus along
the coast and interior valleys should scatter out by 18-20z Sat
as daytime heating progresses. Afterwards, VFR conditions prevail
through the evening. Westerly to northwesterly winds around 5-10
kt today, strongest in the afternoon.

PDX AND APPROACHES...15-30% chance for MVFR stratus between 12-18z
Sat. Otherwise, VFR through the TAF period with some high clouds.
Expect northwesterly winds 5-10 kt.      -Alviz

&&

.MARINE...High pressure will maintain northerly to northwesterly
winds across the waters through the week. Winds generally look
weak and remain around 10 kt or less. Expect seas 4-6 ft at 7-8
seconds today, subsiding to 3-4 ft late this weekend into early
next week. No signs that conditions will meet for Small Craft
Advisory criteria through the next week. -Alviz

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...None.
WA...None.
PZ...None.
&&

$$

www.weather.gov/portland

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